A Complicated 2022
Economy Decelerating: As COVID stimulus programs ebb the economy will transition from recovery to trendline growth, which we and others recognize as 2% or less. The case for this trendline degradation can be seen from the following three exhibits. First is a graph of average GDP growth in between recessions showing a steady weakening following the last three downturns, from 4.1 % core momentum in the 1980s to 3.5%, to 2.7% to 2.1 % following…