A Complicated 2022

Economy Decelerating: As COVID stimulus programs ebb the economy will transition from recovery to trendline growth, which we and others recognize as 2% or less. The case for this trendline degradation can be seen from the following three exhibits. First is a graph of average GDP growth in between recessions showing a steady weakening following the last three downturns, from 4.1 % core momentum in the 1980s to 3.5%, to 2.7% to 2.1 % following…

Stay Interviews

The concept of interviewing employees regularly in order to better understand how engaged they are with the company and together develop plans to help them achieve their future aspirations has been around for some time. And yet, it took a full-blown pandemic, followed by The Great Resignation wave on late summer 2021, to bring the idea to the forefront. Stay Interviews are IN! You can now find numerous article discussing the concept, why it’s relevant…

Building Franchise Value – What Matters Most

All banks, both private and public, enjoy two types of returns – current income (which is typically measured quarterly) and long-term capital appreciation, which is measured both as the growth in book value as well as the market value of the enterprise, which typically gains a franchise value premium. Analysis by Steven Alexopoulos of JPMorgan Securities shows that, over time, the three most successful paths to yield franchise value premiums are: • Organic growth •…